The Making of a Myth (or how the result of the election will "prove" Canadians don't want to debate abortion)

The result of this election will "prove" that Canadians don't want to reopen the abortion debate. Here's how:

As we get closer to election date, the opposition (as they do in every election) will smear the Conservatives with Mr. Harper's supposed "scary hidden agenda" to recriminalize abortion and send women back to the dark ages and back-alley butchers, despite Mr. Harper's repeated promises not to reopen the abortion debate (Peter Mansbridge interview and Charles Lewis article)

If Mr. Harper doesn't win his majority, he will blame it on the opposition's fear-mongering about abortion, thus "proving" Canadians don't want to debate abortion and are happy with the status quo (limitless and completely funded by the Canadian taxpayer).

The irony is, of course, that Mr. Harper could lose his chance at a majority precisely because he adamently refuses to allow a debate on abortion (i.e. enough social conservatives may just decide to stay home and not vote).

If Mr. Harper wins a majority, he will say this "proves" that he was right to promise not to reopen the abortion debate, because such assurances have attracted more "liberal minded" people to vote for him (taking for granted the social conservative vote because who else are they going to vote for, right?).

In reality, there will be no way to know whether Mr. Harper's promise not to reopen the abortion debate and/or the opposition's fear-mongering will have had anything to do with the final outcome of the election without knowing the reasons why people voted the way they did, or didn't vote. But that's not going to stop anyone who doesn't want an abortion debate from using the election results to "prove" in perfect post-hoc fashion that Canadians don't want an abortion debate.

To sum up: If Mr. Harper wins his majority, the story will be that it was because he effectively quashed any fears he'd reopen the abortion debate.

If Mr. Harper loses, the story will be that it was because the opposition was effective at scaring Canadians into believing he would ban abortion.

Either way, the mythology that Canadians don't want to reopen the abortion debate (and by extension that it's political suicide for any politician to try to) is strengthened and perpetuated.